End Times

Why do nations rise and fall, different theorists and theories abound, in "End Times - Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration" (2023) Peter Turchin gives some answers. What I really appreciate about Turchin's work is the methodological rigor and the use of data. His approach takes in components of culture, history, geography and demographics to track factors that, in particular, signal decline. As the title suggests, power and the role of elite are focal in social transformation and revolution, with a notable focus on the "over production" of elite and a rise of inequality (via wage decline, etc) that cause radicalization of the aspiring elite. This is well worth reading, and the author makes the work accessible for non-experts (although cliodynamics is not the most accessible name for the field of work, a term he coined in 2003). Recommended. A few notes:

"During the Qing period, elites were mostly recruited through the civil examination system, which consisted of several levels of degrees, conferred to successful candidates in local, provincial, and court examinations. The system worked well for the first part of the Qing period. It ensured a high level of literacy and competence among the bureaucrats. The study of Confucian classics helped to create a common ethos—a shared sense of culture, morality, and community—within the ruling class. And its emphasis on promotion by merit buttressed state legitimacy." (p. 23)

"All complex human societies organized as states experience recurrent waves of political instability. The most common pattern is an alternation of integrative and disintegrative phases lasting for roughly a century. Integrative phases are characterized by internal peace, social stability, and relatively cooperative elites. Disintegrative phases are the opposite: social instability, breakdown of cooperation among the elites, and persistent outbreaks of political violence, such as rebellions, revolutions, and civil wars." (p. 29)